Smart Shrinkage for Mykolaiv? Sustainable Development in Stagnating and Shrinkage Scenarios

Abstract

In Ukraine, with the Russian invasion that started in 2022 still ongoing, the issue of considering a controlled shrinking strategy has become increasingly urgent when looking at the possible population scenario identified by the Mykolaiv Masterplan. Rather than considering the best-case scenario, we must consider the worst-case and baseline scenarios of demographic change. Planning for stagnation and decline must be prioritised to reduce disparities and enable sustainable development. This paper presents possible demographic scenarios for Mykolaiv after the war, along with their socio-economic effects. It maps the geography of knowledge produced by smart shrinkage and reflects on leading causes, strategies, consequences, contradictions, and opportunities. The research questions addressed are whether and how these strategies can be applied to the mounting recovery challenges in Mykolaiv.