Urban change, foreseen or imagined? The role of simulation models in planning urban transformation. Foresight for Wrocław metropolitan area

Abstract

Cities have been planned for millennia. Planners – whether they were builders, architects, urbanists, surveyors or lawyers – tried to anticipate changes and imagine the future pattern of urban structure. They arranged the civic activities in the agoras and commerce in the market squares. They imagined monumental axes and social housing neighbourhoods. Yet since urban growth has exceeded the level of hundreds of thousand inhabitants the future arrangement, the urban layout, the plan is beyond the imagination of a designer. Planners need more specialised tools to foresee the change and conceptualise the effects of their intervention. Complexity is increasing.