Advanced Quantification of Urban Complexity and Adaptive Capacity: Sub-Fractal Analysis and Spatial Statistics in İzmir

Abstract

This study evaluates the adaptive capacity of İzmir, Turkey, by applying sub-fractal and difference analysis to assess urban complexity from the 1950s to 2020s. Using principles of fractal geometry (Batty & Longley, 1994), it quantifies the morphological evolution of the city’s road network to determine resilience to socio-environmental change. The findings identify a consistent Adaptive Capacity Range (ACR) of 0–0.25, indicating moderate adaptability constrained by structural thresholds (Özdemir, 2021; Erdoğan, 2021). Drawing on statistical mechanics and theoretical physics, the study introduces computational tools for modelling urban expansion (Salingaros, 2010) and offers a transferable framework for resilience assessment (Triantakonstantis, 2012; Jiang & Yin, 2014). This interdisciplinary approach advances understanding of urban complexity and provides a replicable model for analysing adaptive capacity in dynamic city systems.