Decisions in Time of Climate Change: The CLUC-Model as a Tool for Spatial Planning

Abstract

This paper introduces the Climate and Land Use Change model (CLUC-model) as a decision-support tool for spatial planning in the context of climate change. With urban heat islands already contributing to higher morbidity and mortality rates, climate change is expected to intensify these impacts. The CLUC-model simulates the interactions between land use, land cover, and urban temperature differences, enabling projections under various planning scenarios. It identifies five key parameters that spatial planning can influence—specific heat of concrete, average mass of concrete, building mass per unit of land, roughness length, and evaporative fraction. Case studies from Stockholm and Rostock demonstrate that by adjusting these parameters, planners can better assess and design adaptation measures. The model thus provides a structured approach to evaluating future spatial patterns and enhancing cities’ resilience to climate change.