Inclusive Urban Planning Based on Time-Use Analysis: A Markov Chain Approach Across Family Life Cycles

Abstract

As China’s urbanization shifts from rapid expansion to quality-oriented development, understanding the dynamics of time use across different stages of the family life cycle is essential for designing more inclusive and targeted urban planning strategies. Time, as a key indicator of quality of life, is profoundly influenced by family structure, social roles, and the living environment. However, existing studies on time pressure and behavioral dynamics lack a systematic life-cycle perspective. Drawing on the 2018 Shanghai time-use survey, this study identifies weekday activity structures and high time-pressure periods across typical life stages and applies a Markov chain model to construct activity-state transition matrices. Through this, we uncover critical spatiotemporal stress points at each stage and propose planning strategies for inclusive cities. Key findings include: (1) Time-use patterns evolve from a “work-oriented” structure to a more complex “care–work–leisure” interplay as families progress through life stages, with the childcare phase showing the most acute time pressure. (2) Entropy-based fragmentation metrics highlight morning and evening peaks as the most stressful periods. (3) Markov models reveal frequent activity transitions within these pressure zones: work-centric paths dominate during the pre-nesting phase; dual cores of employment and family responsibilities emerge during the nesting phase; childcare years exhibit the most complex and fragmented chains; post-child phases shift toward work and leisure; and the dissolution phase focuses on health care and rest. (4) Based on these insights, we propose differentiated spatial strategies aligned with family life cycles, including nighttime leisure facilities, parenting support spaces, and age-friendly infrastructure. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of dynamic time-space behaviors and offers data-driven insights for building age-inclusive and socially equitable cities.