Path Dependence and Plan Formation: Envisioning and Implementing Chicago’s Plan for Transformation

Abstract

Over the past decade, the concept of path dependence has increasingly appeared in planning literature as scholars attempt to explain historical continuity in urban policy issues such as regional economic development, infrastructure provision, and planning processes. Despite its potential, path dependence remains under-theorised in planning. This paper applies historical institutional analysis to examine the conceptualisation, planning, and implementation of Chicago’s public housing redevelopment programme. It argues that the evolution of public housing in Chicago from the 1950s to the 1990s created an institutional structure that shaped and constrained redevelopment efforts. Although change occurred, it was highly contested, and the resulting redevelopment plan reflected entrenched institutional power relations. This shaped Chicago’s application of the HOPE VI programme and influenced the mobilisation of actors and resources for its implementation. Drawing on interviews and a detailed history of Chicago’s public housing between 1937 and 2007, the paper illustrates how institutional path dependency influences plan formation and implementation, with significant implications for urban growth and change.