Investigating the Impact of Urban Form Elements on Carbon Emissions at Different Development Stages: Based on GWR Models

Abstract

With rapid urban expansion, cities consume 78% of global energy and are major carbon emitters. Due to uneven urbanisation, Chinese cities at different development stages show varied relationships between urban form and carbon emissions. This study explores the impact of 3D urban form elements on carbon emissions across development stages to promote low-carbon development and carbon neutrality. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Random Forest models, the study analyzed spatial heterogeneity and non-linear relationships. Key steps included classifying city development stages, estimating city-level emissions using inventories and Night Time Light data, and examining spatial autocorrelation. Results indicate that factors such as building height and built-up area have a significant impact on emissions. These findings provide targeted recommendations for carbon reduction and sustainable urban development.