Making scenarios for nature policy in the Netherlands

Abstract

This paper presents the Nature Outlook 2010–2040, developed using a scenario-based approach to explore possible long-term developments in Dutch nature policy. The scenarios combine qualitative narratives, visual representations, and quantitative data to illustrate alternative future states of nature and the policy strategies needed to achieve them. Methods such as model calculations, workshops, and design activities were employed, enabling policymakers to engage with and contribute to the study. The process not only generated valuable insights but also increased policymakers’ openness to the results, helping them to better understand and prepare for alternative pathways in nature policy.