How to Make Development Plans Suitable for Volatile Contexts

Abstract

This paper examines how development plans can be adapted to volatile contexts by applying principles of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Spatial systems evolve through non-linear processes driven by multiple interrelated factors, which challenges the rigidity of traditional development plans. While such plans provide direction, certainty, and coherence, their inflexibility undermines their utility in dynamic environments. Using the Blauwestad case study, the authors explore how CAS-based principles can enhance adaptive capacity in urban environments while also creating tensions with established planning functions. The study highlights the trade-offs between flexibility and certainty and argues that planners require new skills to effectively design and implement development plans that co-evolve with spatial dynamics.