Dynamic Analysis of Cultivated Area-Food-Population System in Shrinking Rural Areas of Northeast China and Its Planning Strategies

Abstract

Rural population decline, an inevitable outcome of urbanization and socioeconomic progress, critically impacts national food security through interactions within the cultivated area-food-population system. This study examined Northeast China, a region emblematic of rural depopulation, to analyse systemic dynamics using 2000–2020 census data. Spatial shrinkage patterns were mapped and categorized, revealing key trends. Proposed strategies advocate proactive “smart shrinkage” aligned with demographic shifts: enforcing farmland protection, enhancing black soil conservation, optimizing agricultural layouts, and boosting grain productivity. These measures aim to harmonize population-land-grain coordination, balancing strict resource governance with regional integration. Findings provide actionable guidance to advance sustainable rural-urban synergies, ensuring resilient food systems amid demographic transitions in Northeast China.