Why Public Transport Interventions Work or Not? A Meta-analysis Based on the Behaviour Change Wheel Model

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of public transport promotion policies through a meta-analysis based on the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) framework. Addressing inconsistencies in previous evaluations, the study applies the BCW’s three-layer model—policy categories, intervention strategies, and the Capability-Opportunity-Motivation-Behaviour (COM-B) model—to explain why some interventions achieve greater success than others. The analysis synthesises evidence from 24 high-quality studies conducted across 16 countries, comprising more than 5.59 million data points. The findings indicate that guidance policies are the most effective in encouraging public transport use, particularly when they combine incentivisation, education, and regulatory measures that strengthen motivation and physical opportunities. In contrast, environmental and social planning policies show comparatively limited effectiveness because they primarily improve physical opportunities without sufficiently influencing motivation. Service provision policies demonstrate strong long-term impacts by combining environmental restructuring and enablement strategies that enhance both motivation and opportunities for sustained behavioural change. The study provides a unified theoretical framework for evaluating public transport interventions and offers evidence-based guidance for designing more effective and durable policies that support sustainable urban mobility.